29 юни, 19 часа, цена $256
Market Commentary (BTC):
What has occurred over the weekend in the price of bitcoin should come as no surprise to our readers. While we were expecting the price to remain within the 239 to 252 $ trading range with a bullish bias towards the top of the range, headlines out of Europe (Greece and Germany) were able to create some FOMO which pushed the rally up to intermediate term resistance around the 260 $ area. Until the 256 and 259 $ local highs are broken, and 262 $ is taken out on volume, then bitcoin will remain rangebound and choppy. However, given the longer term technical setup there could be significantly more upside in the near future IF these levels can be broken in the near term.
Getting to the technicals, we want to take a look at two charts which tell the medium and long term stories well. First up is the daily chart, which is now entering a strong resistance zone. The yellow area we have highlighted on the chart represents the OTE short zone off the of 155 to 315 $ rally early in the year, as well as a bearish order block and the 200day MA. The indicators are also mixed with Willy getting near overbought, ergotics exhibiting a small bearish divergence, and A/D showing a continuation of the accumulation of coins. Putting all of this together tells us that getting through the 256, 259, and 262 $ resistance levels will be tough in the very near term, and in fact price will still be well within a strong sell zone until the 280 $ area is tested and broken. The next few weeks will be critical in determining whether we are undergoing a true trend change or just a countertrend bounce.
Next up is the weekly chart, which we referenced directly in last Friday's update. We can see that the weekend rally allowed price to get high enough to keep the confirmed reversal intact (no more "X" above last weeks candle), which is a very bullish sign. Adding to the bullishness is the fact that, for the first time in well over a year, price is now above the descending wedge with plenty of room to run to the upside according to the momentum and volume indicators. If the bulls can hold current levels for long enough to clean up the short term indicators, then we have little doubt that the 259 to 262 $ resistance zone will at least be tested over the course of this week.
Overall, the price action over the past few weeks has reaffirmed our generally bullish bias, but has yet to move far enough in either direction to force us from our neutral positioning (hence no ProTrade yet). Presently, we are still within a wider trading range between 220 and 260 $ so we want to keep our powder dry. In fact, if the bulls cannot muster the strength to breakout of this range in the next 7-10 days, then a retest of the bottom of this range would become the preferred scenario. Until then, we will continue to stay patient as the market consolidates recent gains.