След като дискусията за цената на биткойн в информационния ни портал за биткойн - http://hash.bg - позамря, отваряме такава дискусия и тук с надеждата, че повече хора, които по една или друга причина търгуват с биткойн, ще могат да се включат. Също така ще поместваме и по-интересните виждания на един от най-добрите анализатори в света - тези от Bullbear analytics.
По време на миналогодишната биткойн конференция в София Crypto.bg беше награден с безплатен абонамент за една година от Bullbear. Първоначалният ни скептицизъм относно стойността на тази награда беше обаче бързо разпръснат, след като в доста случаи предсказанията им за цената се случваха с точност до долар…
Макар че абонаментът им в началото може да изглежда скъпичка ($25 на месец, $275 на година), определено смятаме, че за всеки сериозен трейдър на биткойн той бързо ще се изплати и сме склонни да вярваме на твърдението на сайта, че вече имат над 1500% профит от прогнозите им.
За да не обезсмисляме абонамента им, ние няма да публикуваме техните така наречени pro-trades, които са сигнали за влизане в пазара с точни take profit i stop loss указания.
И за да не е толкова общ този постинг, ето какво пишат за краткосрочната им прогноза от вчера:
##Short Term Outlook:
(SHORT TERM NEUTRAL AS LONG AS 166.45 $ HOLDS; VERY SHORT TERM DOWN UNLESS 322 $ IS BROKEN)
A spate of good news and a technical breakout has sent bitcoin prices higher over the past 24 hours. While
things are looking more bullish than they have in some time, don’t forget that we are still in a bear market until
the 320 $ mark is broken.
The 240min chart is showing what could be a near term bottom around 213 meaning
this rally could make its way up to the OTE short zone between 275 and 285 $. This all started on a momentum divergence on the most recent low, followed by a breakout above the short term downtrend line off of the 303.96 $ high, and finally a bullish volume breakout. We are hitting resistance at current levels, which happens to be the 23.6% Fibonacci level and volume profile notch area, but at the very least we expect a test of the 240 $ area.
Despite the bullish price action, momentum is already getting overbought with Willy moving back to the -20
line quickly while CM PPO is showing increasingly crowded conditions. Our hunch is that they take a run at
240 $, but will pull it back there due to overwhelmingly overbought indicators. At that point it will be most
revealing to see what materializes. Another breakdown below 220 $ means sub-200 $ is coming, but if they can hold 220 $ one more time then we could be looking at a trend reversal. The next two weeks are critical…
No surprises over the past 24 hours as price shot up to our 240 $ soft upside target before pulling back to the low 230’s $. What is unexpected is that it appears as though the market is already finding support at current levels. Given the extreme overbought conditions on the hourly and 240min charts as well as the failure at 240 $, we thought for sure that 230 $ would break and we would see another test of 220 $ over the weekend.
We are now questioning whether the low 220’s $ will be seen again before we get to the 255 to 260 $ resistance area. Sometimes we must look past the indicators and “feel” the market in the moment. It is difficult to explain, but when you watch a single market everyday for 18+ hours for years, sometimes you just get a feel for what the market wants to do. This is is one of the those times as the bullish feeling is stronger than it has been in at least a few months.
This sentiment is supported by the higher timeframe charts as they remain oversold with a working double bottom in the OTE long zone. We think a run through resistance at 240 $ is most likely in the cards, and at the very least we think another stop run to the 242 $ region is coming over the next couple of days. That said, the real tests for the bulls will come at 260 $, 300 $, and 320 $, and by no means are we implying that breaking these is probably, but we do think its possible.
Technically speaking, the market continues to struggle with the 50% Fibonacci level on the daily chart, which also happens to be right where volume profile PoC lies. If the bulls can hold this 235 $ zone through the weekend, then next week sets up very nicely for another impulsive rally. Also, Willy and PPO are looking good for a continuation, and accumulation has picked up a little bit recently. As long as the 218 $ level can hold, the bulls have a fighting chance…
On Friday we made a near term bullish call on the bitcoin market, and over the weekend the market did precisely what we expected it to do. Price is now holding in the 240 to 245 $ region following a pullback to the low 230’s $ early in the weekend. We still think a continuation up to the 247 to 252 $ area is likely, however we would advise caution at those levels as another push to the upside will take momentum into very overbought territory on all of the shorter term charts, and is the OTE short zone on multiple timeframes.
The main chart we are watching right now is the 240min chart which is shown below. You can see that price is currently hitting resistance at the 61.8% Fibonacci level while at the same time bumping up against the top of the volume profile value area. Additionally, Willy is stupid, RSI is quickly moving to overbought, and CM PPO is signaling danger for the bulls. On the other hand price is now comfortably above both the 150 and 200-day MA’s and SCMR support continues to build around the 230 $ level.
At this point we are not ready to take a position given the extended nature of the current rally and poor trade location, but we do think a strong possibility is that price continues to move higher up to the 250 - 252 $ range (OTE short ss off of the 240min chart) which would fill in the volume profile and set the market up for its next move. Following a top being put in at those levels (shown by red box on the chart below), price should correction back down to at least 230 $, but more likely 220 $.
That said, if 262.45 $ is broken to the upside on volume, then we could be looking at the first stages of a new bull market. We shall see…
Най-сетне институционалните инвеститори имат зелена светлина за вход в света на биткойн.
От вчера първият ETF - със символ GBTC - е листнат за търговия в Америка. Както се вижда от следната статия в Bitcoin Magazine, малкото сделки са осъществени на цени от $340 до $1,330 за биткойн. Не е печатна грешка. Ако се чудите за отговора защо някой ще даде за биткойн толкова пари, след като по биткойн борсите цената е $240, краткият отговор е, че за институционалните инвеститори няма друг начин за придобиване на биткойн.
За съжаление всички части от този фонд са в ръцете на инвеститори, които са ги закупили на доста по-високи цени преди време и едва ли много хора ще искат да се разделят със своите дялове. Това също е причина сделките от вчера да са на такива цени.
Ще чакаме ETF-а на братята Winkelvoss, който ще е отворен по природа и ще има осезаемо влияние върху цената.
Много scary: следния репорт съм го получил 15 минути преди срива на цената от 1450 CNY до 1410 CNY:
Bitcoin BullBear Price Update for 5/6/2015
Market Commentary (BTC):
No chart today as price action has ground to a halt around the 235 $ level. That said, it is becoming increasingly unlikely that our previous call for a run at 250 $ materializes due to a stall in momentum and building overhead resistance. Going into a weekend with news flow slowing we do not want to be long coins, especially given the bearish market structure taking form. On the other hand, getting short at current levels seems too risky given reward potential, therefore we are simply looking for a retest of the 220 $ level where we can perhaps get long.
Outside of that, there is not much happening on the charts. The market is now mired in a tightening range trade as the Bollinger Bands contract, which will eventually be broken one way or the other.
Again, our thinking is that the break is to the downside, but price finds support quickly around 220 $. At that point we will reevaluate for ProTrade opportunities. For now, we stay neutral in the chopzone.
Bitcoin ProTrade : No ProTrades but for the first time in months we are looking for both short AND long setups.
След като вчера пуснаха сигнал (които няма да публикуваме тук, защото не би било честно), според който препоръчваха да влезнем шорт на $238-$240 и да гоним профит на $230 или по-долу, със стоп лос $243, ето какво пишат днес (след като сигналът им беше излезнал губещ)
Bitcoin BullBear Price Update for 5/8/2015
Market Commentary (BTC):
As much as we dislike getting stopped out on a trade, it’s not nearly as bad as remaining in a losing position as the market spikes against you. While the trade setup we identified yesterday in the ProTrade was completely valid, what worked for the past few months on the short side is no longer profitable, at least for now. This most likely indicates that the market is entering a new phase as the bear market winds down. We are certainly not saying that major downdrafts can and will not materialize, however we think the time has come that barring some catastrophic exogenous event, the bottom is probably in at the mid-100’s $.
The technicals on the weekly chart support this thesis as a textbook “W” bottom has been put in at the 210 $ level, while Willy and RSI finally creep higher, and SCMR trends is showing a weekly trend reversal confirmation. If we can get through the next week or two without a reversal cancellation, then we will become even more bullish.
The shorter timeframe charts remain fairly overbought, but that may be the case for some time if the trend is indeed reversing. What we would like to see is one more washout back down to the 220 to 230 $ area to clean up the indicators followed by a run at, and break through, the critical 263 $ level. If the bulls can push above there on the kind of volume we have seen recently, then 300 $ should be tested again in the not too distant future.
Stay tuned for our Weekly Reports due out this weekend as we will further detail our thinking following the recent bullish action.
Following a weekend that saw the bears try multiple times to spark a panic below support at the 50% Fib retrace at 238 $, they simply could not break through support levels. By all appearances, there is an institution, large investor, or combination of the two that are supporting prices at bullish technical levels. Tough to say whether this is long term activity or just another bear market pump, but given the great looking “W” double bottom on the weekly chart we think things are looking rosy for the bulls, at least in the near term.
Add to that the fact that the hourly, 4 hour, and daily charts have been technically overbought for the past few days with little consequence and it is hard to see price breaking down below the 238.50 $ low prior to making a new high above 250 $. That said, we want to see a final consolidation back to the 240 to 242 $ range before taking a trade to the upside.
Днес излезе седмичният анализ на bullbear analytics, в който се казва, че за първи път от дълго време насам се появяват признаци за обръщане на големия мечи тренд, макар и да има още вода да изтече, докато може да се заяви. Ето някои от по-интересните съждения вътре, който иска да го види целия, нека ми пише лично съобщение тук.
Despite the recent bullish price action, though, the market is still in a
bear market until further notice and therefore all moves higher should
be met with skepticism. Is this when the bulls prove us wrong?!
…
There are points in
time that feel more
significant than others,
and this seems to be
one of those times for
bitcoin. Following a hold
of the key 210 $ level
(again) price rallied up
to strong resistance at
250 $.
…
From a purely
technical perspective, the current medium term price range of 210 to 260 $ is extremely
important to how the rest of 2015 will materialize. The bears are adamant that price
must head back down to the low 100’s $ in order to completely washout the players
from the previous two bubbles. Converesly, the bulls feel as though the bear market
has already persisted for too long and is price poised for a strong push higher. Which
ever side wins this battle will likely hold control of the market through year end.
Not only are we in a critical period regarding the technicals, but also for the fundementals
as well. First of all, GBTC (the Greyscale Bitcoin Invesment Trust) is now trading on the
Nasdaq OTC markets and is gaining some momentum in terms of volume (the most
important thing right now is certainly volume). That said, the price of GBTC shares is still
more than double that of equivalent bitcoin, so something is going to give sooner or
later. Either GBTC gets sliced in half, bitcoin rallies up to 500 $, or they meet somewhere
in the middle. Our guess is the final option, but who knows. Regardless, Wall Street
is watching how this security trades so increasing volume and participation will go
a long way to helping institutions feel more comfortable with cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin BullBear Price Update for 01:30 ам 14/5/2015
Well that was extremely disappointing. Despite the fact that our risk was only 2.50 $ to the downside, it hurts nonetheless. At this point we need to see what happens with price action down at the these levels, but given the impressive volume, overbought indicators, and lack of a bounce this could have some legs to the downside. On the other hand, it could be a classic stop run on those of us that were long from 240 $, especially seeing as though the dump stopped right on the 61.8% Fibonacci extension off of the recent range.
The first level to watch for support (below the current level) is the 226.42 $ local low. Below that we are still watching the 210 to 220 $ range for clues as to the validity of the recent strength. If this support range fails to hold then indeed we will revisit the 100’s $, but if it can then we think we can make another run at 250 $. Still way too early to tell, so we are back to neutral for now.
So, bitcoin is too volatile, right? It will never go mainstream because the price moves too much, correct? Well, that obviously has not been the case over the past six weeks as it has been trading within a 20 $ range between 220 and 240 $ (>10% range). In fact, we are more worried about mediocre uptake in bitcoin usage due to LACK of volatility, not the presence of it. Volatility brings speculators into the market who then provide liquidity which in turn brings in more players. It is a virtuous cycle but the trading opportunities must be abundant, which they are not at the time being. That being said, we do not think we have seen the last of the major price movements as this story is far from over. In fact, when price break out of this trading range in the not too distant future, volatility could pick up with a vengeance just as it did the last time volatility was this low (back in 2012).
For the technical outlook we return to the daily chart for the medium term perspective. First of all, we can see that price continues to bounce around between the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels which shows that the bulls are holding in better than expected. If this region can hold then we will have a bullish retracement and a higher low. This would take us well above 250 $ (finally). Conversely, Willy is still running hot at -35, accumulation remains flat during the consolidation, price remains below the 100day MA, and volume has fallen off a cliff. If we had to venture a guess, we would default to the trend once again and say that a retest of the low 220’s $ is the most likely short term scenario, however we have thought that for more than a week and when the market does the unexpected it means it is trying to tell you something. Perhaps what it is telling us now is that the downtrend is nearing an end and a new trend will soon emerge. This is pure speculation as we have no technical confirmation one way or the other at this point, but it seems more possible than it has in many months.
Generally speaking we remain neutral on this market until either the 230 $ level is broken to the downside or 240 $ is broken to the upside. Our suspicion is that this chop will continue for the early part of the week, but that volatility will make a return (at least in part) prior to the weekend. In fact, we may be waiting for action until after the Memorial Day holiday in the US, but lets certainly hope not!
Despite a minor breakdown to test the 230 $ level yesterday, bitcoin remains caught in a range between 225 and 245 $. Until one of these levels is broken, we will patiently sitting on the sidelines in order to preserve capital. That said, we still think there is a high probability that the 220 - 225 $ support area will be tested in the near future, at least prior to a countertrend rally back up to the top of the range.
Technically speaking the drop yesterday did do some short term damage to the hourly chart as the institutional EMA’s are now firmly pointing down and SCMR dynamic resistance is now firmly entrenched at 234 $. Additionally, Willy still has plenty of room to run to the downside and volatility actually remains very low. We expect the current range to remain valid through the end of this work week. In fact, we think price will continue to bounce on either side of the 230 $ level with dips down to 225 $ being bought and spikes up to 235 $ being sold.
Longer term, we are still in the camp that prior to a sustainable rally to the upside we need to see the 210.12 $ low tested again in earnest. Once we get down there we will have a much better idea of what will play out following that event, although until then the uncertainty will remain palpable
Много активни са напоследък, но горе-долу същата песен на същия глас:
Bitcoin BullBear Price Update for 5/20/2015
Market Commentary (BTC):
The consolidation in the low 230’s $ continues as the market is absolutely directionless for the time being. Over the past month or so the range trades have been contracting from 210-250 $ at one point, to 220-240 $ last week, to 230-235 $ now. Obviously this trend cannot continue so we are expecting a range break in the near future (perhaps over the long weekend). In which direction it breaks is anyone’s guess, but we are sticking to our neutral positioning with a slight bias to the downside given the prevailing longer term bear trend.
The technicals remain very mixed with the weekly chart staying rather bullish, the daily chart turning downright bearish, and the shorter term charts showing many conflicting signals. For example, the 15min chart below shows overbought conditions as price reaches the top of the current trading range, while the 240min chart still shows oversold conditions on many indicators. For now we will be watching the near term charts such as the one below in order to find any clues as to where the market is heading out of this range. At this point it appears as though there should be another test to the downside of the 230 $ support area to clean up the indicators, but after this is becomes much more difficult.
Our longer term outlook remains negative as it has been for some time as we still think the 210 to 220 $ area must be tested again in order for the bulls to feel comfortable pumping this thing up past resistance at 262 $, OR for the bears to feel good enough about substantially lower prices given a range break to the downside. We are not ready to say whether we think this critical zone (210-220) will hold on the next major selloff, so we will be preserving capital and waiting for our chance to strike. Still too choppy and indecisive to actively trade bitcoins right now.
Bitcoin is slowly creeping higher towards the top of the current trading range at 239 $. While we were able to break through the constricting range trade from yesterday at 235 $, the move has been unimpressive. This being the case, price remains stuck in the spiderweb of support and resistance that has been created over the past few months. Despite this recent mini-rally, the technicals remain complicated with short, medium, and longer term timeframe (TF) charts all sending different signals.
In the near term we could see a continuation of the current move up to the OTE short zone between 239 and 242 $ on the hourly chart below. This would also fill in the substantial volume profile notch that sits between here and there, and would pull the indicators into overbought territory once again. We expect a pullback to begin around those levels, IF the market can get there. That said, for that to even be a possibility (to break the trend of stair stepping lower that is still intact), the 239 $ local high on Bitfinex must be taken out on volume. If the price fails to break above that level with conviction then we are still ranging, which means more chop zone for the market and more neutrality from us.
Currently we want to wait and see if the bulls can muster some strength, but we remain skeptical of any of these moves. More to come in the weekly report.
Ето тази новина пречупи така добре заформящия се мини тренд:
Hello,
Dear Customer although we keep over 99.5% of users’ BTC deposits in secure multisig wallets, the small remaining amount in coins in our hot wallet are theoretically vulnerable to attack. We believe that our hot wallet keys might have been compromised and ask that all of our customer cease depositing cryptocurrency to old deposits addresses. We are in the process of creating a new hot wallet and will advise within the next few hours. Although this incident is unfortunate, its scale is small and will be fully absorbed by the company. Thanks a lot for your patience and comprehension. Bitfinex Team
Regards,
The Bitfinex Team https://www.bitfinex.com/
Да се надяваме, че хот уолетът им е наистина с малко коини в него и няма да има големи поражения, така че може да е добър момент за малка печалба ако купите сега…
Вялата корекция на цената при иначе толкова лоша новина като вчера определено говори, че поне засега пазарът е в подкрепа на цената на биткойн. Ето и анализът на BullBear Analytics:
Bitcoin BullBear Price Update for 5/22/2015
Market Commentary (BTC):
As expected bitcoin has broken out into the 239 to 242 $ resistance range. Volume has picked up during the rally, but is still lackluster compared to Q1 telling us that there remains skepticism about the move. That said, with volatility near historic lows and bears failing to take price down on the Bitfinex hack news, there is a good possibility that there could be more upside than previously thought, at least in the near term.
Taking a look at the 240min chart below we can see that the market continues to appear directionless despite the rally today, but we do have a series of higher lows that could take price higher. Willy is very close to stupid overbought and RSI is getting near 70, which tells us that a move into the OTE short ss at 252.06 $ will likely be met with BIG resistance. Not only that, but if the bear market trend of the past 18 months is truly coming to an end, we don’t want to see a parabolic spike higher on already overbought conditions. A sustainable bull market should pull back as it continues to climd a wall of worry.
Conversely, if price fails to hold the 240 $ level, then we should revisit the low 230’s $ once again. Given the current circumstances, we want to remain neutral and patient through the long weekend in the US. If the bulls say “screw it” and push price up through long term trend and SCRM resistance in the 260-262 $ area on big volume, then we would change to bullish and would get long on that move. Until then, more chop…
